4 matchups to watch for during Patriots vs. Dolphins
Patriots
The Patriots’ banged-up offensive line could cause issues both in pass protection and the run game on Sunday.
After coming up just short against the Eagles during their season opener at Gillette Stadium, Mac Jones and the Patriots will look to get in the win column on Sunday night against the Dolphins.
Kick-off is set for 8:20 p.m.
There were some positives to take away from New England’s loss to Philadelphia, but the road won’t get any easier on Sunday against a high-powered Miami offense.
Here are four matchups to keep tabs on during Sunday’s AFC East showdown.
New England’s O-line vs. the injury report
The Dolphins’ pass rush isn’t as formidable as the Eagles, which led the NFL last season with 70.0 sacks — 15.0 more than the second-place Steelers.
But given the decimated personnel that New England might have to roll out in front of Mac Jones on Sunday, even a pedestrian pass rush stands a chance to completely thwart Bill O’Brien’s gameplan on offense.
The Patriots were dealt a major blow last Sunday against the Eagles, with their two starting guards in Mike Onwenu (ankle) and Cole Strange (knee) ruled out due to injury.
The injury report this week has been even more dour. Both Onwenu and Strange are still limited due to their ailments, with starting center David Andrews joining them as a limited participant due to a hamstring issue.
To make matters worse, starting left tackle Trent Brown and reserve guard Sidy Sow did not practice both Wednesday and Thursday due to concussions.
The Patriots offensive line did manage to hold up against the Eagles’ pass rush last week, with Jones only sacked twice — both coming late in the fourth quarter.
But if Brown and Sow are not available against Miami, New England might have to slot veteran Calvin Anderson over to left tackle and push a recently acquired tackle like Vederian Lowe or Tyrone Wheatley Jr. into another starting spot on the right side.
Rookie Jake Andrews could be pressed into service at center if David Andrews isn’t cleared to play, while the other vacant guard spot might be filled by a carousel of depth pieces, including the odd man out of the Wheatley/Lowe rotation at tackle. A practice-squad candidate like James Ferentz could also be elevated for Sunday’s game.
Even though Jones managed to keep himself off the gridiron for a majority of Sunday’s game against Philadelphia, even a split-second of extra time in the pocket can go a long way toward keeping the Patriots QB locked in on offense.
As noted by Nicole Yang of The Boston Globe, when Jones is kept clean in the pocket, he has completed 73.7 percent of his throws with an average of 6.3 yards. When pressured, he has completed 43.8 percent of his passes with an average of 4.8 yards per attempt.
According to NextGen Stats, Jones’s average time to throw was 2.52 seconds against the Eagles, 28th in the league in Week 1.
That time could be limited even further if the Dolphins manage to rush past whatever tackle depth New England rolls out on Sunday.
Jonathan Jones vs. Tyreek Hill
If the Patriots want to squish the fish on Sunday, they’re going to have to find a way to limit Tua Tagovailoa and an explosive Miami offense that posted 36 points and 17 plays of 15+ yards in Week 1 against the Chargers.
And when it comes to explosive talent, Miami’s offense is anchored by arguably the most gifted receiver in the NFL, Tyreek Hill.
With Hill’s straight-line acceleration, the Dolphins can stretch the field and burn defenses with ease. Hill reeled in 11 catches for 215 yards and two scores against Los Angeles last weekend.
But New England does have a potential equalizer in speedy corner Jonathan Jones.
As noted by Mark Daniels of MassLive.com, Jones has matched up against Hill six times in his career. In those games, Hill has seven catches on 16 targets for 88 yards against Jones. Opposing QBs have a 35.4 passer rating when targeting Hill with the Patriots’ defensive back in coverage.
As he’s done against most NFL teams, Hill burned Belichick and the Patriots in his first few matchups against New England.
In 2017, Hill caught seven passes for 133 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots. The following year, Hill had seven passes for 142 yards with three touchdowns against New England.
But things shifted after Belichick opted to put the fleet-footed Jones in coverage against Hill, relying on Jones’ speed to try and slow down the star wideout.
Of course, Jones will likely need some help, with Belichick and Co. regularly doubling Hill by putting a safety over the top as added insurance in case Hill sprints past Jones.
Jones did land on the injury report Thursday due to an ankle issue and reportedly wasn’t seen at practice on Friday. But if he’s out there on Sunday, expect plenty of coverage snaps against the Dolphins’ top offensive weapon. If he’s not, New England might have to significantly overhaul its entire defensive game plan.
Granted, Hill is far from the only dominant receiver that Tagovailoa can throw to. Speedy slot receiver Jaylen Waddle has also burned New England in the past, including a touchdown against New England on fourth down in 2022’s season opener.
With Jonathan Jones likely keeping tabs on Hill, it could be a big game for Marcus Jones and Myles Bryant in the slot against Waddle.
Rhamondre Stevenson/Ezekiel Elliott vs. Miami’s rush defense
Shutting down Hill and putting pressure on Tagovailoa will help New England hamper Miami’s offense in Week 2.
But the best way to keep the Dolphins’ offense contained might be to simply keep them off the field.
New England has the personnel in place to gain consistent yardage on the ground and drain the clock with both Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield.
And if there’s one area for the Patriots to exploit against Vic Fangio’s defense, it’s in the trenches.
Against the Chargers, Miami relinquished a league-high 234 rushing yards in Week 1.
Rather than risk injury to Jones or rely on him to throw the ball 50+ times as he did against Philly, the Patriots QB should be able to do plenty of damage by just handing the ball off to Stevenson and Elliott.
But New England’s offensive line woes loom large here. With the interior of their O-line decimated in Week 1, the Patriots struggled to establish the run game, gaining just 76 rushing yards on 22 attempts (3.5 yards per carry).
“I think that’s something we can really improve on this week,” David Andrews said of the rushing attack on Wednesday. “Miami, I think they have a really good front, so it’s going to be a really big challenge. Christian Wilkins leads the league in tackles every year from the tackle position. He’s a really good run player. They just have a really good front.”
If the Patriots’ offensive line can’t create holes up the middle for Stevenson and Elliott to run through, Bill O’Brien might have to get creative with his formations in order to find ways for that duo to gain chunk yardage off of outside runs.
This could be another matchup where the Patriots dial up the “pony” formation, where both Stevenson and Elliott line up on the field next to Jones.
“I think it’s tough on the defense when we’re on the field together,” Elliott said Thursday of the unorthodox formation. “They don’t know what’s going to happen. One of us could be blocking, one of us could be releasing for a route, one of us could be running.
“There’s so many different things we could do when we’re on the field together. It causes a little bit of headache for the defense.”
Mac Jones vs. Vic Fangio’s defense
Despite a slow start and lackluster finish in Week 1, Mac Jones and the Patriots offense was much improved from the simplified, dysfunctional offense run by Matt Patricia and Joe Judge in 2022.
Jones finished with a career-high in completed passes (35) while throwing for 316 passing yards and three touchdowns. Even with a few blemishes, including his high throw that resulted in a 70-yard pick-6 from Eagles CB Darius Slay, there’s plenty for Jones and Bill O’Brien to build off of in Week 2.
But Jones and New England should face plenty of challenges against Miami and their new defensive coordinator in Vic Fangio, who is one of the more respected defensive minds in the NFL.
“Defensively, obviously it’s been a big overhaul for them, with Vic coming in,” Belichick said on Wednesday. “I have a ton of respect for Vic as a coach and what he’s done in the multiple times we’ve faced him and just watching his teams over the years, very disciplined, sound and extremely well-coached, well-prepared defense.”
Fangio’s defense usually features plenty of Cover-2, with the scheme focused on taking away big plays for the opposing offense. Granted, Jones and the Patriots aren’t exactly a big-play offense, with Jones usually at his best when relying on screens, short passes, and explosive plays generated by yards after the catch.
This could be a game where the Patriots do plenty of damage with options out of the slot. JuJu Smith-Schuster could be in line to bounce back from a lackluster debut against Philly.
But this could also be a potential breakout game for rookie Demario Douglas, who played 33 snaps and reeled in four catches against the Eagles.
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